During free agency the question of player values is answered. Many times
these answers assure you that there is nothing set in stone in the NBA.
Within a couple of days of the start of free agency the waters were
muddied with rumors of contract offers and rejections, and rumors in
general. There seems to be no telling who will go where and for how
much. The free agency market does not resemble other markets where
prices can be figured out by tinkering with supply and demand, or does
it? Let's look at some recent signings and offers while attempting to
solve this mystery and find some consistency.
The Washington Wizards agreed to a four year, 22 million dollar deal with Martell Webster. Chances are that you don't know who this Webster
character is, and therefore can't understand why he is making this type
of money. We can agree it is far from the most lucrative deal signed so
far, which would be Chris Paul's five year $107 million contract with
the Clippers, but it does not make it any easier to figure out how
player value is gauged. The 27 year old Webster put together his best
statistical season in 2013 averaging 11.4 points and almost 4 rebounds a
game. Maybe it's all about performing well at the right time and/or
becoming a free agent during an unexciting free agency period. It may
also be that the Washington Wizards valued Webster's youth, or that the
front office in Washington has a knack for putting together sub par
teams.
On the opposite side of the Webster coin is Kevin Martin. Recently
signed to a four year, 28 million dollar contract with the Minnesota
Timberwolves, Martin is coming off of his worst season since 2006. He is going to take a steep pay cut in the 2013-2014
season, but thanks to the free agency pool currently in play Martin was
able to sign a four year deal only two days after free agency began. In
2012, Martin made roughly $12 million, his current deal with Minnesota
averages out to $7 million a year. How much could Martin have made if he
was in his 2010-2011 form? Probably a lot more. Still, Martin is a
proven scorer while Webster is not, yet somehow Martin is making only
$1.5 million more a year.
Maybe it all has to do with the franchises signing these players and how
their specific value system works. Just a week ago many believed that Kyle Korver was surely signing with the Brooklyn
Nets. All that changed with the blink of an eye. Korver was courted by the Milwaukee Bucks that would pay him $20 million over three
years shortly after flirting with the Brooklyn Nets. The deal offered by Milwaukee came very close to what Kevin Martin is earning in Minnesota,
yet Korver has not come anywhere near to performing at Martin's level
throughout their respective careers. The Atlanta Hawks then decided to offer Korver a $24 million, four year deal. Korver accepted, the Hawks got what they wanted, and we continue in player value limbo. Compared to Martell Webster, Korver
is making roughly $500,000 more per year than the 27 year old. Much like
the Wizards, the Bucks have had a difficult time attracting elite
players to their franchise. This means that they have had to overpay
mid-tier players in order to assemble a somewhat competitive team.
Growth for these franchises, and other franchises like them, is
partially why David Stern crusaded on behalf of small market teams. He
had to force competitiveness upon the league. Still, the Bucks and
Wizards of the NBA seem to overpay at every turn. This may all just be a
guessing game with no real trends or charts telling us how much a
player is worth until a handful of free agents sign sometimes fair,
sometimes ridiculous contracts. Then again, conspiracy theorists have already coined the "Tanking For Wiggins" term. That may be it, but I'm staying far away from
the value speculation game and suggest you do as well.
-Alex Moran
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