I hated math throughout high school and did my best to avoid the subject completely once I graduated. Unfortunately, I avoided developing a passion for any high school class and ended up being dragged to my first college stint by my wonderful mother. I did terribly, of course. But once I got the hang of things, sometime around my second semester, I found a way to just tough it out. A bunch of years later, after the sale of a family owned business, a year of working retail (Why Universe? Why?), and developing a love for writing, I'm graduating with a degree in Anthropology.
Having started off as a business major (my mom has a certain view of the world we don't necessarily share) had its perks. One of these benefits was a statistics class that I never paid any attention to and miraculously passed with something like a B average. I'm guessing the grade was curved. But what has surprised me most about my business major days is how often I look into statistics post-graduation. Even as an undergraduate taking a million social sciences classes, statistics lingered.
Enough with the college stuff, let's spin this piece a bit to give it some fantasy football relevancy. My league is about five weeks away from drafting, which means the time is nigh to begin some form of research. Football is pretty low on my list of priorities, so I had no idea of the majority of changes that had taken place throughout the NFL. Getting ready for anything in the dark is a difficult thing to do and I'm just not that carefree. And yes, it's just a game with no real money (except a small league fee) on the line, but let me be. This hobby is much better for the planet than amassing a footwear collection mostly manufactured in China and floated across an ocean on a large gas chugging vessel. It also beats daytime television and most careers.
My young fantasy football career has been much like my first year at college. I've had to drag my corpse through weeks that become blurs and end in realizations like: the outside world is great, fantasy football is dumb, and my favorite, I stopped maturing around seven years ago. But the one thing I had not paid much attention to, and probably should have, is statistics. Sure, luck and good timing are a big part of fantasy sports, but after two disastrous seasons it was time to bring some pragmatism into the equation. Something has to solve this problem, and building shrines to each of the players I draft isn't going to cut it (this would also be followed by a bunch of questioning from people that care about my mental well being).
For better or worse I read Matthew Berry's annual Draft Day Manifesto. He came up with a thesis that stated something along the lines of, "If you score 94 points a week consistently you'll pick up eight wins and those eight wins will get you into the playoffs." That sounded so simple and assuring that I gobbled it up without much thought. Then, of course, I thought about it. After thinking about it I had to do some research that focused on my own fantasy league. I swore that if Berry's magical statistic didn't hold true in my league I would approach the season with an All Hope Is Lost mentality.
According to Berry and a stat guy over at ESPN the eight win playoff team in first place averages 95.3 points per game. "Eight wins got you in (the playoffs) 95 percent of the time," Berry states. Well, that statistic holds true in my league. As a matter of fact, seven wins is good enough in my case because we allow six teams into the playoffs, not the standard four. The problem came with the 94 point average playoff teams were supposed to strive for. Negative. In 2011 five teams averaging below 94 points per game made the playoffs. Of those five teams, three averaged below 90 points per game.
That means only one team out of the six playoff teams in 2011 averaged 94 points per game or better; that one team's average was 96.8. The only two other teams that met Berry's average or surpassed it failed to make the playoffs and actually ended in ninth and tenth place (in a ten team league). All Hope Is Lost.
I couldn't give up so easily and the Knicks Summer League team wasn't playing, so I looked into the 2012 season. To my chagrin, the statistics did much better this time around. Of the six teams in the playoffs, three averaged Berry's 94 point benchmark. The other three teams outscored the bottom four teams except for one poor soul; ironically, it's the same guy that averaged 96.8 in 2011. The 2012 season was statistically neater with the higher averaging teams in the playoffs, for the most part.
As usual, this leaves me nowhere when it comes to fantasy football. (I plant my flag in no man's land and wait to die of age.) From the couple of statistics I rattled off regarding my league you can tell it's a chaotic mess of irrational weekly performances. Still, we have a two time champion. You read that right. Somehow, a being out there can ride the Sandworms of Dune into the sunset holding a trophy in each hand. But maybe, just maybe, that first season was a wild fluke no statistical work could decipher. Maybe I can use statistics this time around....and hope for the best. All Hope Is Truly Lost.
- Alex Moran (@MoonbeanMarcos)
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